5 World Cup 2026 Upset Picks: Underdogs to Watch in Your Bracket

Every World Cup is decided as much by the upsets as by the favorites. Saudi Arabia over Argentina in 2022. South Korea over Italy in 2002. Senegal over France in 2002. The 48-team format only increases the chaos. Here are five teams that could blow up your bracket — for better or worse — at the 2026 World Cup.

1. 🇲🇦 Morocco — they did it once, they can do it again

FIFA #8 · Group C

Morocco's 2022 run to the semifinals (beating Spain and Portugal) wasn't a fluke. The Atlas Lions are now drawn into the same group as Brazil. With Achraf Hakimi peaking at 27 and a deep midfield, finishing above Brazil in Group Cis realistic. If you're in an Upset Bonus pool, picking Morocco above Brazil is the trade.

How to play it: Morocco 1st of Group C, Brazil 2nd. Then take Morocco to the quarterfinals.

2. 🇭🇷 Croatia — Modrić's last dance

FIFA #11 · Group L

Croatia have made the final 8 in both of the last two World Cups (final in 2018, third in 2022). Modrić is 40 but Vatreni play above their seeding every tournament. Drawn into Group L with England, Ghana, and Panama. Realistic to finish 2nd, knock out a big name in R16, and push to the semis again.

How to play it: Croatia top 2 in Group L, then a deep run. The team has a track record — pools that downgrade them because of FIFA rank are leaving points on the table.

3. 🇰🇷 South Korea — Son Heung-min's peak window

FIFA #25 · Group A

Son turns 33 in July 2026 — last World Cup at his peak. Drawn into a winnable Group A with Mexico, Czechia, and South Africa. Korea reached the Round of 16 in 2022 and the Asian Cup semifinals in 2024. Lee Kang-in and Hwang Hee-chan round out a strong attacking core.

How to play it: South Korea 2nd in Group A behind Mexico, then take them to the quarterfinals. If they meet a favorite in R16, the upset payoff is large.

4. 🇳🇴 Norway — Haaland's World Cup debut

FIFA #31 · Group I

Norway are at their first World Cup since 1998 — and they bring Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, and a generation of talent that finally qualified. They're in Group I with France, Senegal, and Iraq. Realistic 2nd-place finish.

How to play it: Norway over Senegal for 2nd place in Group I. In Upset Bonus pools, picking Norway through the R32 against a wildcard team is a high-EV bet.

5. 🇪🇬 Egypt — Salah's last shot

FIFA #29 · Group G

Mo Salah is 33-34 by tournament time. The Pharaohs haven't won a World Cup match in nearly a century. Drawn into Group G with Belgium, Iran, and New Zealand. Egypt finishing 2nd or 3rd (wildcard) is in play. If Salah hits form, anything past R32 is a major bracket boost.

How to play it: Egypt 2nd of Group G ahead of Iran. Then a knockout upset against a tired favorite.

Bonus: how to think about upsets in your pool

Two pieces of advice from years of bracket pool data:

1. One bold upset call beats five safe ones. The consensus pool will look the same — France, Spain, Brazil — at the top. Your differentiator is the team nobody else picked who actually goes deep.
2. Match the upset risk to your scoring mode. In Classic, an upset is worth the same points as a chalk pick. In Upset Bonus, an upset is worth 2-5x. Choose your boldness accordingly.

Lock in your upset picks

All picks lock at the first kickoff on June 11, 2026. Build your bracket now — and don't play it safe.

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